Here are our forecasts for the 2024/25 Premier League season, concentrating on the leading teams and the most favorable odds for potential champions.
Alan Buck Aug 4, 2024
Manchester City enter the 2024/25 Premier League season as the bookmakers' favorites to win the title. Pep Guardiola's team is aiming for an unprecedented fifth consecutive league title, solidifying their dominance in the division. Despite a quiet transfer window with no major departures and only the arrival of Brazilian winger Savinho, City's squad remains strong. Savinho, a promising young talent, could add a new dimension to the team, while academy graduates like Oscar Bobb and James McAtee are expected to play bigger roles. There are rumors that this might be Guardiola's final season, which adds extra intrigue to City's campaign. Despite concerns that their dominance has reduced the league's excitement, City remains the team to beat.
Arsenal had their best season since their 2003-04 league victory, finishing with 89 points, just shy of their historic "Invincibles" tally. Despite their strong performance, they ended without a trophy, highlighting the challenge of competing with Manchester City. To bolster their squad, Arsenal has signed Italian defender Riccardo Calafiori, seen as a significant upgrade, and are reportedly close to securing Spanish midfielder Mikel Merino. Key departures include Emile Smith-Rowe and possibly Eddie Nketiah, with funds likely aimed at another big signing. Arsenal also expects a full season from Dutch defender Jurriën Timber, enhancing their already strong defense. Though it's uncertain if they can surpass Manchester City, Arsenal is poised to be their closest competitor.
Liverpool enters the new season with uncertainty after finishing 3rd last year with 82 points, during what turned out to be an emotional farewell for Jürgen Klopp. Klopp's departure was marked by disappointment over a late-season collapse that ended their title hopes. The team is now led by Arne Slot, who brings a more controlled, possession-based style from Feyenoord. The squad is transitioning to this new approach, but Slot may need time to rebuild. The transfer window has been quiet, with no new signings and only Thiago Alcântara's retirement and Joël Matip's departure. While Liverpool's squad remains strong, the team may lack the necessary quality to compete with the top contenders, especially with Mohamed Salah no longer able to carry the same heavy attacking load as before.
Manchester United enters the new season with uncertainty after a disappointing previous campaign, finishing 8th with just 60 points. Despite their struggles, they ended the season on a high note by winning the FA Cup final against Manchester City, potentially saving Erik ten Hag's job. United has invested heavily in new talent, including teenage sensation Leny Yoro and Dutch forward Joshua Zirkzee, but consistency remains a concern. The club is still in the market for a defensive midfielder, though they may need to sell players first. Promising performances from young players like Amad Diallo and Toby Collyer, as well as a rejuvenated Mason Mount, have sparked some optimism. However, the pressure is on Ten Hag, who likely has one last chance to succeed at the club.
Aston Villa had a standout season last year, finishing 4th with 68 points under the guidance of Spanish manager Unai Emery. To build on this success, Villa has been very active in the transfer market, making several significant moves. Key departures include Douglas Luiz, Moussa Diaby, and others, while the club has brought in notable players like Ian Maatsen, Amadou Onana, and Ross Barkley, leading to a net spend of approximately -£50 million. While a title challenge is unlikely and securing another 4th place finish may be tough due to stronger competition from Manchester United and Tottenham, Villa remains well-positioned to aim for a top-four spot and is looking forward to participating in the Champions League.
Tottenham is undergoing an exciting and smartly managed rebuild, focusing primarily on youth development. The club has made targeted transfers, including 18-year-old midfielders Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall, and is in the market for a striker, with Dominic Solanke from Bournemouth being a top candidate. Manager Ange Postecoglou is steering this rebuild, which also involves integrating promising young talents from the academy, like 17-year-old forward Mikey Moore. While Spurs acknowledge they won't be in the title race this season, they're building a squad aimed at future contention. Despite finishing just two points behind Aston Villa last season, Spurs could still be a strong force in the league this year.
Chelsea's recent rebuild has been chaotic and largely ineffective, starkly contrasting with Tottenham's more strategic approach. Since the post-Roman Abramovich ownership took over in 2022, Chelsea has spent over £1 billion on transfers, yet finished 12th and 6th in the league. The club's transfer strategy seems disorganized, focusing on acquiring young talents while neglecting their own academy products. Last season, under Mauricio Pochettino, Chelsea struggled to integrate numerous new, inexperienced players, ultimately finishing 6th. Pochettino has since left, reportedly due to frustrations with the club's structure.
Chelsea's new manager, Enzo Maresca, who recently guided Leicester City to promotion, has a divisive reputation and follows Pep Guardiola's management style. His appointment signals a risky direction for the club. This summer, Chelsea's key senior signings include Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Tosin Adarabioyo, and Filip Jørgensen. Despite the squad's remaining quality, with players like Reece James, Cole Palmer, and Christopher Nkunku, the lack of a coherent strategy makes it unlikely that Chelsea will contend for the title or see significant improvement this season.
Newcastle finished 7th last season, a drop from their 4th place the year before, largely due to a persistent injury crisis. However, with key players returning and a strong finish to the last campaign, there's optimism for improvement this season. Despite rumors of manager Eddie Howe leaving for the England National Team job, he appears committed to Newcastle.
In the transfer market, Newcastle has made solid moves, including securing Lewis Hall permanently, signing defender Lloyd Kelly, and goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos. They are also close to acquiring Danish striker William Osula and pursuing Crystal Palace's Marc Guéhi. However, departures like Yankuba Minteh, despite the club's need for a right-winger, have drawn some criticism.
Newcastle still needs a top-quality right-winger and a defensive midfielder, but their squad is strong. With key players like Sandro Tonali back and promising talents like Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall expected to develop further, Newcastle is poised to be a competitive and entertaining team this season. While they may not contend for the title, a Europa League spot and even a top-four finish are realistic goals.
