Manchester City have an opportunity to turn their season around as they go head-to-head with Real Madrid in the Champions League playoff stage.
Nolan James Feb 10
A Disappointing Group Stage Finish
Manchester City ended the Champions League group stage in 22nd place, collecting just 11 points from eight matches. Their progression to the playoff round was far from convincing, only securing qualification with a crucial victory over Club Brugge on the final matchday. It has been a turbulent campaign for Pep Guardiola’s side, with their struggles in domestic competition reflected in their European performances.
To make matters worse, City now face the daunting challenge of Real Madrid, a club with an unrivaled pedigree in this tournament. This matchup marks the third consecutive season the two sides have faced off, adding yet another chapter to their growing rivalry.
A Rocky Road to the Knockout Stage
City suffered heavy defeats in the group stage, including a humbling loss to Sporting Lisbon and two-goal deficits against Juventus and PSG. If they hope to advance, they will need to produce their best performances of the season. Defensive frailties have been a persistent issue, and against the blistering pace of Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior, City’s vulnerabilities could be brutally exposed.
A Playoff Spot That Could Have Been Avoided
Finishing 11th in the group stage with 15 points from eight games, Real Madrid will likely regret not securing a direct spot in the next round. Despite City's poor form, Madrid face a tricky tie that could have been avoided with more consistent performances.
Carlo Ancelotti’s men suffered defeats to Lille, AC Milan, and Liverpool, which ultimately cost them a higher seeding. Domestically, Madrid remain in control of La Liga, but their record against top teams this season has been concerning. Heavy losses to Barcelona, defeats to Milan and Liverpool, and a draw against Atlético Madrid highlight their struggles in high-stakes encounters.
Injury Concerns in Defense
A major concern for Los Blancos heading into this fixture is their defensive injury crisis. With Antonio Rüdiger, Éder Militão, and David Alaba all sidelined, midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni has been deployed as a makeshift center-back. While Madrid have coped well so far, such vulnerabilities could prove costly against elite opposition.
Despite these setbacks, they remain the clear favorites. City’s defensive struggles make them particularly susceptible to Madrid’s fast, counter-attacking style. Additionally, having the second leg at the Santiago Bernabéu gives the Spanish giants a significant advantage. Unless City manage an outstanding first-leg result, Madrid should be expected to advance.
Manchester City’s Inconsistent Form
City enter this match with three wins and two defeats in their last five outings. Their latest game saw them edge past Leyton Orient 2-1 in the FA Cup, recovering from an early scare with goals from Rico Lewis and Kevin De Bruyne.
Prior to that, they suffered a humiliating 5-1 loss to Arsenal, though they did manage a 3-1 victory over Club Brugge and another 3-1 win against Chelsea. However, their defensive frailties were evident in a 4-2 defeat to PSG, where they squandered a two-goal lead.
Real Madrid’s Recent Performances
Los Blancos come into this tie with three wins, a draw, and a loss in their last five matches. Their most recent fixture saw them held to a 1-1 draw against Atlético Madrid, with Kylian Mbappé getting on the scoresheet.
Before that, Madrid secured a 3-2 victory over Leganés in the Copa del Rey, a result that followed a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Espanyol. They also claimed back-to-back 3-0 wins over Brest and Real Valladolid, with goals from Mbappé, Rodrygo, and Jude Bellingham.
Real Madrid may not be as dominant as in previous seasons, but Manchester City’s struggles have been far more pronounced. Guardiola’s team has looked disorganized defensively and highly vulnerable in transition—precisely the areas Madrid thrive in.
With Bellingham and Camavinga providing energy in midfield and the rapid Mbappé-Vinícius duo stretching the defense, this could be a nightmare matchup for City.
Their recent meetings have been high-scoring, with 25 goals across the last six encounters. Expect another goal-heavy affair, but Madrid appear far better positioned to capitalize on City’s weaknesses and take control of the tie.
